How to tell if a transfer rumour is true

1.Find the origin, not the headline

Most transfer stories are repeats. Follow “according to…” links until you reach the first outlet or journalist that reported it. If ten sites cite the same one, you have one source, not ten. Every dossier here marks which outlets reported first-hand and which only repeated.

From our archive · The rumour Jarell Quansah to Real Madrid appears in 19 articles, but only 1 independent origin: 12 outlets repeat it. Its evidence score is 26/100: the number of articles says little about how much independent evidence there is.

2.Judge that source by its record

A source with a long history of being right earns more trust than a new account. Compare how often each outlet’s stories turned out right and each journalist’s record. Anonymous accounts, fan pages and “sources close to…” with no outlet behind them should count for little.

3.Read the stage the story claims

“Interested in” is not “in talks”, and “in talks” is not “agreed”. Each step is a bigger claim than the one before. The five stages run from interest to agreement; a rumour at the first stage needs far less evidence than one saying a deal is done.

4.Check the date and the window

Old stories are recycled. Make sure the report is recent and about the same transfer window. A report from last summer about a move that did not happen says nothing about this summer, and a story from the week a window closes may be about a deadline that has passed.

5.Look for denials

A denial from the club or a reliable source outweighs several repeats. Our debunked rumours page shows stories that were denied and who had been spreading them. Be careful with weak denials: “nothing is close” is not the same as “it is not happening”.

From our archive · Ibrahim Maza to Paris Saint-Germain was denied. The dossier shows 1 original report and 6 repeats before the denial arrived.

6.Treat fees with care

Fees are reported in different currencies, with or without add-ons and agent costs, and often as a range. A figure only means something when it is for this player’s move and comes from an outlet that has been right before. Two independent outlets giving the same number is a better sign than one outlet repeated.

7.Wait for confirmation

A transfer is done when the club announces it or the player is registered, not when a journalist says it is close. We call a deal confirmed only after a fixed check, and you can browse the confirmed transfers. The score on each dossier estimates how much independent evidence exists; it is not a probability that the move will happen. The rules are in the methodology.

From our archive · Adam Nygaard to FC Midtjylland is confirmed. Before that it was a rumour with 6 original reports and 4 repeats; the dossier keeps the whole trail.